62th MUMEI-JUKU (24/08/2022)

Theme: Current Issues in Japan

Lecturer: Former Ambassador to the U.S. Shinsuke Sugiyama

◆ Opening remarks by Shuzaburo Takeda

Since the COVID-19 infection spread, Mumei-juku has been held online. However, online communication alone has its limitations, so we decided to hold this meeting a face-to-face meeting for the first time in two and a half years.

I found a very interesting article on coronas in the Washington Post dated August 23 and would like to share it with you. The title is “Your first brush with the Coronavirus could affect how a fall booster shot works and your response to future variants.”

Today’s lecturer, Ambassador Sugiyama, was our Ambassador to the United States during a very difficult time. The topic we asked him to speak on was “Japan’s Current Challenges. Japan is facing many challenges in the midst of turbulent times. In addition to anti-virus measures, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has raised concerns about global stagflation, trade, the economy, and other issues. However, the biggest challenge of all is that the world is certainly moving into the next era in the midst of this upheaval. Even if these problems were to subside, there is no going back to the way we were. We have rarely been discussed about the most important issue of how to keep up with the rest of the world, how to welcome the new era, and how to prepare for its future until now in Japan. I hope that you will listen to Ambassador Sugiyama’s speech today, and at the same time, I hope that you will consider this issue together.

◆Comments from Mr. Takeda after Ambassador Sugiyama’s speech　

The Ambassador’s talk reminded us that China is a big issue. I believe we need to think about the importance of geopolitical advanced technology in this regard.

China’s strength lies not in its communist party or socialism, but they’ve proceeded with its policy of introducing science and technology. China has thoroughly learned from what the U.S. has done in terms of science and technology policy and what Japan did in the 1980s to promote quality control, which was the most advanced technology of the time, and Deng Xiaoping and subsequent leaders have promoted the introduction of such technology. (*In other words, China introduced technology policy as a key element of its geopolitics).

In the meantime, U.S. science and technology has gone unattended to, and U.S. Edge has declined, and it even looked as if China might overtake the United States entirely. However, over the past several years, the U.S. has finally realized the reason for this.(*The U.S. Council on Foreign Relations submitted a report, “Keeping the Edge,” in 2019, which has since been followed by similar reports by the U.S. government and many other think tanks.)

President Biden then issued a speech shortly after taking office in 2020, saying, “The future of the United States lies in technology.” It took 18 months, but in late July of this year, the CHIPS & SCIENCE Act (“CHIPS” is CHIPS for semiconductors; Creating Helpful Incentive to Produce Semiconductors for America, SCIENCE refers to a broad range of basic science and advanced technology) was passed by both the House and Senate. The other issues which related with IRA Act was also passed. On August 9, President Biden held a White House signing ceremony for the bill, during which he stated, “Decades from now, the nation will look back on this time and reflect on what has passed, what has moved forward, and what has met at this inflection point in history.”

In contrast, Japan has been spending 10 trillion yen to strengthen its universities though I believe that momentum must be generated to focus on science and technology or advanced technology as the backbone of the country (Practice on Technology Policy as a Keystone of Geopolitics).

As for the China issues, it is impossible to think that we, the people of China, can do anything alone against a top Chinese leader who thinks he is better than the middle of the East, West, North, South, and West.　I am not an expert on China, but I believe that at least that is the starting point of the awareness of those involved on the US side.

Henry Paulson, for example, who served as Secretary of the Treasury, clearly said, “When did the thing we raised become the devil’s child.” The American people have a strong sense of having been betrayed by China. I think this has been the result of the good nature of the people of the United States over the past 20 or 30 years. The Japanese also have a very good-natured side.

Matthew Goodman, deputy director for economic affairs at CSIS, is very clear that Japan has led the world economy in three or four areas over this past decade. First, he pointed to Prime Minister Abe’s “quality diplomacy. Next, on the basics of Data Free Flow with Trust, the basis of the age of data, and Prime Minister Abe summed it up well IPP11, with the U.S. leave away.

Furthermore, not only Goodman but also many American pundits expect from Japan today is to lead in economy security. Economy security does not simply mean that the economy and security have come together, but that we are entering a new era in which economic rationality is not the panacea, and security issues such as resilience and supply chains are being considered simultaneously. Current Prime Minister Kishida has clearly advocated the idea that responding to these issues will lead to the next era of economic development. The U.S. has always had this idea, but Prime Minister Kishida was the first to clearly advocate it. This is a shift in a new era, and Japan’s role is very important in this new perspective and different way of thinking.

China and Russia have a strategy of division. Japan, on the other hand, is not merely opposing China and Russia, but is promoting a new form of globalization by clearly articulating the perspective of an open Indo-Pacific, or fusion, within the context of QUAD. I believe that one of Japan’s tasks is to create a new era that is not only one of division and confrontation.

As for China, I believe that Prime Minister Kishida’s dialogue with President Xi Jinping is fundamental. It is natural for PM Kishida to talk with President Biden, but he must also acknowledge the fact that China has become a major power. Their economy is strong. For example, even under the Corona pandemic, we must also acknowledge the fact that Japanese exports are falling while Chinese exports are rising. What we can do in this context is still to have the top management talk through each other. The policies that follow should be based on the mutual understanding between the private sector and the public sector, and the public and private sectors must have a certain degree of mutual understanding, rather than a collusion relationship.

In Washington, I also was greatly indebted to Ambassador Sugiyama. At the Cosmos Club, of which I am a member, consulted with Mr. Horowitz, a member of the program committee, and asked the Ambassador to give a lecture in January 2019. The Cosmos Club, which has about 100 Nobel laureates as members, also had the Ambassador speak there, and many people commented after his lecture that they were very moved.

I differ slightly from the Ambassador in that while it is true that Japan had power, the Ambassador did not dare to repeat himself in the midst of the current sinking of Japan, but after all that Prime Minister Abe has done, it is important to know how we will succeed him under the leadership of Prime Minister Kishida.

Currently, the Japanese mass media is dominated by talk of the old Unification Association and politics. This is important, but I dare say that it is a “cheap importance. The more important issue for us is to create the next future in the midst of this upheaval.